Democratic Candidate NC NC NC NC
Pollster Rass IADV Zogby R2000
Date 5/1 5/1 4/30-5/1 4/29-30
Barack Obama 49% 49% 50% 51%
Hillary Clinton 40% 44% 34% 44%
Other(vol.) 11% 7% 16% 5%
Democratic Candidate IN IN CNN PEW
Pollster Zogby SUSA CNN Pew
Date 4/30-5/1 4/28-30 4/28-30 4/23-27
Barack Obama 42% 45% 46% 47%
Hillary Clinton 42% 52% 45% 45%
Other(vol.) 16% 3% 9% 8%
Link Link

Zogby has been right on during the past couple of races and they seem to be an outlier here with respect to how Obama is doing in North Carolina and Indiana. Zogby definitely tends to get the most media coverage so we should expect this “Obama is fading” rhetoric to lessen with their favorable Obama predictions. And if Zogby is right on with these results, Clinton would be the one that’s fading. With the race just a couple of days away, let’s see how these things roll and if there are other pollster coming out in agreement with Zogby.

According to the Democratic national poll by CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll:

“Among all Americans, Wright gets a 59 percent unfavorable rating; only 9 percent of the public has a favorable view and a third are unfamiliar with him. Among Democrats, the figures are virtually the same. Roughly a quarter of registered voters, and roughly one in five Democrats, say they have heard about Wright’s remarks and think less favorable about Obama because of them. Most, however, say their view of Obama did not change after hearing about Wright,” says Holland.

The poll also indicates that the public is more familiar with Wright now than they were in March, when he first became a presence in the campaign — but the number who feel less favorable toward Obama has not grown since the second round of controversy about Wright erupted last week.

Overall, both Clinton and Obama remain extremely popular among Democrats, but enthusiasm for both candidates is flagging as the bitter battle for the nomination wears on.

Holland says that just one thing really separates Obama and Clinton in the minds of Democratic voters — by a 20-point margin, 57 to 37 percent, Obama is seen as the one who is more likely to become the party’s standard-bearer.

Obama currently leads the New York senator when it comes to pledged delegates, the popular vote, and states won, in the primaries and caucuses held to date. A big question facing Democrats concerns the party coming together and backing the eventual nominee. Will die-hard Clinton supporters back for Obama if he’s the nominee and will devoted Obama supporters get behind Clinton if she’s the nominee?

According to the poll, the number of Democrats who would feel enthusiastic if Clinton were the nominee has fallen from 45 percent in January to 38 percent in March to 33 percent now. Enthusiasm for an Obama victory has also dropped from 45 percent in March down to 36 percent now.

As for possible November showdowns with Arizona Senator John McCain, the Democratic candidates have virtually identical but statistically insignificant advantages over the presumptive Republican nominee.

Clinton and Obama both claim that they are more likely to beat McCain, but the poll shows each of them winning 49 percent against the Arizona Senator, with Clinton topping McCain by five points and Obama beating him by four points. We should note that polls taken before both parties have settled on a nominee are not necessarily good indications of what will happen in November.

According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by Rasmussen Reports:

The demographic results in North Carolina are similar to the dynamics seen nationally and in most primaries—Clinton leads by twenty-three points among White voters while Obama leads 74% to 10% among African-Americans. Clinton leads among senior citizens, the candidates split those in the 50-64 age range, and Obama leads among younger voters.

Eighty percent (80%) have followed news stories about Barack Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Forty-three percent (43%) believe Obama denounced Wright because he was outraged while 40% believe political convenience was the motivation. Seventy percent (70%) of Clinton supporters say Obama was politically motivated. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Obama supporters say their candidate was outraged by Wright.

Forty percent (40%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s controversial views about the United States. That figure includes 62% of Clinton voters.

Overall, 15% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in North Carolina agree with Wright’s comments about the U.S. That figure includes 22% of Obama voters. Wright himself is viewed favorably by 15% of Likely North Carolina Primary Voters.

According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by Insider Advantage:

Whites: Clinton 53%, Obama 39%. Blacks: Obama 80%, Clinton 16%. Men: Obama 52%, Clinton 43%. Women: Obama 46%, Clinton 45%.

According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by Zogby Poll:

Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina—47% to 37% – but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well—winning 44% support to Clinton’s 37% backing.

Asked if the statements of controversial Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright made voters more or less likely to support Obama, 15% of North Carolina voters said they were less likely to support him, while 4% said the comments made them more likely to support Obama.

According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by NBC17 by Research2000:

Of all age groups, men and women, Obama leads with 51 percent of the vote as compared to Clinton’s 44 percent. Another three percent were undecided and two percent chose “other.”

The results are from the Research 2000 North Carolina Democratic Primary Poll, which was conduced April 29 and 30 across the state. The poll includes results from 500 likely Democratic voters who where interviewed by telephone with a 4.5 percent margin of error.

The poll also shows that younger voters (ages 18-29) heavily favor Obama 67 percent to Clinton’s 29 percent. On the other hand, those over 60 chose Clinton by a margin of 59 percent to 35 percent. Overall, Clinton leads for those over 45 years old while Obama leads all younger sets.

Women also chose Clinton by a slight margin over Obama, 49 to 47 percent, while men chose Obama 56 percent to 38 percent for Clinton.

According to the Democratic Indiana poll by Zogby Poll:

The demographic breakdowns in Indiana mirror what we have seen in earlier voting states, with Obama leading among younger voters and Clinton leading among older voters. A key middle-age demographic—those age 35 to 54—now favors Obama by a 48% to 41% margin in Indiana, but this demo turned out to be a key battleground in Pennsylvania, which has a somewhat similar population make-up.

Obama leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama’s hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women.

After getting clobbered among Catholics in Pennsylvania nearly two weeks ago, Obama wins 41% support from Indiana Catholics, compared to 40% who support Clinton. Conversely, Clinton leads among Protestants by six points after having lost among them in Pennsylvania.

Nearly three in four in Indiana—72%—said they held a positive overall view of Obama, compared to 68% who held a positive opinion of Clinton.

The statements of Rev. Wright have had more of an impact in Indiana than in North Carolina. In the Hoosier state, 21% of likely Democratic primary voters said they were less likely to vote for Obama as a result of his former pastor’s statements.

According to the Democratic Indiana poll by Downs Center by Survey USA:

The intensity of the presidential nomination contests between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton has mobilized likely Indiana Democratic Primary voters throughout the state. We are cautious to draw too many direct comparisons with our previous poll as both were separate samples and snapshots of the Indiana electorate under different conditions. Nevertheless, Hillary Clinton appears to have improved her electoral fortunes considerably. In our most recent poll taken between April 28 and April 30 of 689 registered voters likely to participate in the May 6 Indiana Democrat Primary, 52% support Clinton and 45% support Obama (+/- 3.8%). Our previous poll between April 14 and April 16 had Obama receiving 50% of likely registered Democratic primary voters to Clinton’s 45%. The latest poll fell during the latest Reverend Wright controversy, with Barack Obama publicly separating himself from Wright on the second day of polling. Further, the poll was completed before Democratic superdelegates Congressman Baron Hill and former Democratic National Committee Chair Joe Andrew endorsed Barack Obama. Consequently, the effect of all of these events is unclear. What is clear, however, is that Clinton has expanded her lead among strong Democratic identifiers and dramatically turned the tables on Obama with independent voters and those concerned about the worsening economy.