|Democratic Candidate||Ipsos||CBS||USA Today|
According to the Democratic national poll by CBS News NY Times Poll:
Barack Obama’s campaign for the White House remains on track the weekend after the barrage of media coverage of his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Obama’s renunciation of Wright. Some of the damage Obama suffered in the wake of Wright’s re-emergence may have been reversed: Obama now leads Republican John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest, but he has lost some of his lead over Hillary Clinton on some key perceptions.
This poll was conducted after Obama’s denunciation of Wright’s statements, something most voters think he handled well. By a margin of nearly three to one, registered voters who have heard about the situation approve of how Obama has handled it, and 52% say Obama has been appropriately critical of his ex-pastor. But more see political expediency in Obama’s actions than see a true disagreement with his former pastor’s statements.
Overall, voters give approving marks to the way Obama has handled the Wright situation. Democratic primary voters are especially approving.
According to the Democratic national poll by USA Today/Gallup Poll:
The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday’s Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp. A defeat in Indiana and a close finish in North Carolina, where he’s favored, could fuel unease about his ability to win in November. Such results also could help propel Hillary Rodham Clinton’s uphill campaign all the way to the Democratic convention in August.
In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.
In February, Democrats and Democratic leaners by 33 points said Obama had a better shot at beating Republican John McCain in November. Clinton is now seen as the stronger candidate by 5 points.
“That’s a huge issue; I mean, John McCain is not going to be a pushover,” says Ed Cote, an uncommitted superdelegate from Washington state. The Wright firestorm is “worrisome because it’s created a lot of footage for people to make hit ads — ammunition for the Republicans.”
Obama acknowledged Sunday that Wright’s recent remarks — namely the pastor’s suggestions that U.S. actions had invited the Sept. 11 attacks and that the American government could have been behind the spread of AIDS in urban areas — had been an unwelcome distraction in the days leading up to yet another critical set of contests.
“We ended up spending a lot of time talking about Rev. Wright instead of talking about gas prices and food prices and the situation in Iraq,” Obama said on NBC’s Meet the Press. “Hopefully, we’ve been able to put it behind us.”
On ABC’s This Week, Clinton said the contest would continue through the final June 3 primaries. Then, “people can look at all of the various factors and decide who would be the strongest candidate.”
The furor over Wright won’t necessarily cost Obama the nomination; Obama continues to hold an almost insurmountable lead in pledged delegates. But it hasn’t helped his efforts to gain endorsements from uncommitted party leaders known as superdelegates to get the 2,025 total delegates he needs.
The controversy also could be a hurdle if Obama wins the nomination and then tries to draw support from independent and GOP voters in November.
“It will be a continuing problem,” predicts Joe Trippi, a strategist for John Edwards’ presidential bid who isn’t affiliated with one of the current campaigns. “This won’t be the last time it’s raised.”
According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by Insider Advantage:
InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “This race is going to be closer than most experts expected. If the African-American vote is 35% or higher, then I expect Sen. Obama to win, most likely by a 52%-to-48% margin. If white voters have turned out at a higher than expected level, thus driving the black percentage overall closer to the 31-32% level, then the race could be up for grabs. White voters in the poll crossed the margin number for Clinton of 60%-plus for the first time. But the ‘Unaffiliated Voters’ and voters in the age group of 45-to-64 (who previously leaned Clinton) are the two demographic groups keeping Obama ahead of the game. This race really is about turnout and the higher it is, the more likely we will see a closer than expected finish.”
According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by Zogby Poll:
In North Carolina, Obama wins 79% support among African Americans, compared with 11% for Clinton, the junior senator from New York. But while Clinton wins among whites, 52% to 37%, Obama’s advantage among African Americans more than counteracts her advantage among those white voters. The African American vote in the North Carolina primary is expected to be about 32%.
Early voting in North Carolina began April 17th, and Obama has done well among the 30 percent in the survey who said they had already cast ballots. Among those voters, he leads Clinton by a 57% to 34% margin. Many of those ballots may have been cast before last week’s controversy over Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Geographically, Obama made inroads into what had been Clinton territory in western and eastern North Carolina, while Clinton closed to within three points in Charlotte. In the southeast corner of the state, Clinton held a 12 point lead.
Obama dominated among men, leading 56% to 34%, and among women, where he won 47% support to Clinton’s 40%—largely on the strength of Obama’s support among African American women. Obama also led among younger voters in the state, while Clinton enjoyed leads among older voters. Among a key age demographic group—those age 35 to 54—Obama leads by 58% to 29% margin. This group is important because it tends to simultaneously bear many of the burdens facing American citizens, including economic, health care, and educational issues involved with raising children, planning for retirement, and dealing with problems posed by aging parents.
According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by American Research Group:
Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 54% to 39% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Obama leads 47% to 44%. Clinton leads 62% to 27% among white voters (60% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 88% to 9% among African American voters (36% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 55% to 37% among voters age 18 to 49 (51% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 48% to 45% among voters age 50 and older. 25% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 26% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by Survey USA:
In Charlotte and Western NC, there is the slightest momentum for Clinton. In the Research Triangle, in Southern NC and in Coastal NC, there is slight offsetting momentum to Obama. The net is a wash. If Obama wins, it will be entirely from the 19% of voters who describe themselves as liberal.
Clinton leads by 9 among conservatives and leads by 8 among moderates.
If Obama wins the popular vote, it will be because of his 16-point advantage among liberals. Clinton has increasing momentum among voters age 50 to 64, where she has gone from 30% in January to 51% today, her highest showing.
Among those age 65+, Clinton leads by 20 points; the more seniors who vote, the better Clinton does. But there is offsetting momentum among younger voters, some of whom may be first-time voters, and not all of whom may show-up at the precinct. 1 in 4 of SurveyUSA’s likely voters say they have already voted. Among those who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 16 points. Among those who say they will vote on Primary Day, Obama and Clinton are effectively tied.
According to the Democratic Indiana poll by Zogby Poll:
In Indiana, the race is all tied up among women who plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary—at 44% each, while Obama holds a five-point lead over Clinton among men—47% to 42%.
The ovevrall Obama advantage in Indiana—though statistically insignificant—comes after another strong day of polling Monday. The one-day total, which comprises about half of the two-day tracking poll sample, saw Obama winning 47% support to Clinton’s 41%. Monday’s polling results are combined with Sunday’s numbers to produce the two-day tracking poll.
Among Indiana Catholics, Obama holds a three-point lead, while Clinton holds a similarly small edge among Protestants.
Clinton leads among white voters, 48% to 40%, with 12% left unsure or supporting someone else. Among African Americans in the Hoosier state, Obama leads by an 82% to 13% edge over Clinton, going a long way to boost Obama statewide. African American voters in the Democratic primary comprise about 11% of the electorate.
Obama made gains in Indianapolis and now leads there by a 62% to 30% margin, while Clinton leads by a similar margin – 58% to 32%—across southern Indiana. Across the northern tier of the state, including Gary in the west, South Bend, Elkhart, and Fort Wayne in the east, the pair are essentially tied—Clinton wins 44% to Obama’s 42%.
Among voters age 55-64, Obama has made a move forward and now wins 44% support, compared to 43% support for Clinton. Yesterday, Clinton held a two-point edge among those voters. This represents a key advance for Obama, who has had trouble winning support among older voters in earlier states. Conversely, Clinton has won a small lead among voters age 25-34 in Indiana, which is counter to what she has typically done in earlier states. Otherwise, Clinton leads among those voters over age 70, while Obama leads among younger voters other than that 25-34 age grouping.
As has been the case in other states, Clinton leads among low-income households, while Obama leads among wealthier Democratic voters. As was the case with the age demographic in Indiana, Obama has made inroads among those in lower income households that in earlier states had favored Clinton.
According to the Democratic Indiana poll by American Research Group:
Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 51% to 47% among men (44% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 58% to 40%.
Clinton leads 60% to 38% among white voters (84% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 90% to 8% among African American voters (12% of likely Democratic primary voters).
Obama leads 51% to 47% among voters age 18 to 49 (51% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 59% to 39% among voters age 50 and older.
19% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 30% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.