Notice that it doesn’t matter where on the table you stick him, the chances of his next flip being heads is always 1/2. Wherever he is, it doesn’t matter what happened before, his chances on his next toss are always 1 in 2.

How could it be otherwise? When you flip a coin you will get one result out of two possible outcomes. That’s 1 in 2, or 1/2. Why and how could those numbers change just because you got a bunch of heads or tails already? They couldn’t. The coin has no memory, it neither knows nor cares what was flipped before. If it’s a 1-out-of-2 coin, it will always be a 1-out-of-2 coin.

Still not convinced? Then here’s another way to think about it. Let’s say someone hands you a coin and asks, “What are the chances of flipping heads?” Without hesitation you’d probably say 1 out of 2? But wait a minute — if it were true that heads were more likely if tails has just come up a bunch of times, then why did you answer “1 in 2” right away when asked about the chances of getting heads? Why didn’t you say, “Well, you have to tell me whether  토토커뮤니티 tails has been coming up a lot before I can tell you whether heads has a fair shot or not.”? It’s simple: You didn’t ask about the previous flips because intuitively you know they’re unimportant. If someone hands you a coin, the chances of getting heads are 1 in 2, regardless of what happened before.

Would it really be the case that you answered “1 in 2,” and then your friend said, “Oh, I forgot to tell you, tails has just come up nine times in a row.” Would you now suddenly change your answer and say that heads is more likely? I hope not.

One last example: Let’s say your friend slides two quarters towards you across the table. He tells you that the first coin has been flipping normally, but the second quarter has just had nine tails in a row. Would you now believe that the chances of getting heads on the first coin are even but the chances of getting heads on the second coin are greater? Given two identical coins, could you really believe that one would be more likely to flip heads than the other? I hope not!

The same concept applies to roulette. An American roulette wheel has 18 red spots, 18 black spots, and 2 green spots. The chances of getting red on any one spin are 18/38. If you just saw nine reds in a row, what is the likelihood of getting black on the next spin?