According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by Public Policy Polling:
He has a 53-43 lead, the smallest he has shown in a PPP poll over the last six weeks but also larger than many other opinion polls that have been released in the last seven days. Obama will win based largely on the black vote, as the poll shows an electorate polarized along racial lines. Obama leads 84-11 with black voters but trails Hillary Clinton 60-34 with white voters.
“It appears Barack Obama will weather the storm in North Carolina,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Hillary Clinton has certainly been able to make in roads as she has contested the state hard, but North Carolina’s demographics make this almost an impossible state to win for her.”
According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by Insider Advantage:
InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% – very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp.” Towery adds “ What is ironic is that Clinton has an outside chance to pull off a near-tie or victory in North Carolina, but our preliminary overnight numbers in Indiana show her losing steam, but holding a lead, in that state. We will release Indiana numbers by midday Monday.”
Whites: Clinton 59%, Obama 33%. Blacks: Obama 79%, Clinton 18%. Men: Obama 50%, Clinton 44%. Women: Obama 47%, Clinton 45%.
According to the Democratic North Carolina poll by Zogby Poll:
Obama enjoys solid leads in the cities of Greensboro, Charlotte, and the “research triangle” area of Raleigh-Durham, which contain large numbers of younger voters. He has done well across the country among voters in urban settings, while Clinton has done well among older and rural Democratic voters. Obama leads among the key demographic of voters age 35-54 by a 58% to 31% margin – which is dramatically different than how that age of voter acted in Pennsylvania two weeks ago. There, Clinton won among those voters. It is also important to note that Obama has made real inroads among voters age 55-69, where Clinton wins 44% and Obama wins 43% – a statistical tie.
Clinton leads among white voters in North Carolina, 55% to 34%, while Obama leads among African American voters, 77% to 10%.
According to the Democratic Indiana poll by Insider Advantage:
Men: Obama 51%, Clinton 45%. Women: Clinton 50%, Obama 38%. Whites: Clinton 54%, Obama 41%. Blacks: Obama 80%, Clinton 4%.
According to the Democratic Indiana poll by Suffolk University Poll:
AAs breaking 73-20 for Obama, Whites breaking 55-37 for Clinton.
According to the Democratic Indiana poll by Zogby Poll:
Clinton leads among white voters, 46% to 39%, with 15% left unsure or supporting someone else. African Americans in the Hoosier state, which make up about 11% of the Democratic primary electorate, heavily favor Obama. Obama leads in Indianapolis by a 54% to 33% margin, while Clinton leads by a similar margin across southern Indiana. Across the northern tier of the state, including Gary in the west, South Bend, Elkhart, and Fort Wayne in the east, the pair are tied at 42% each.
Clinton holds a double-digit lead among Catholics, while Obama has gained a tiny two-point lead among Protestants.
Among voters age 55-64, Clinton leads by a 43% to 41% edge, which represents progress for Obama, who does much better among younger voters. Among those voters age 35-54, he leads by a 47% to 37% margin, also holding similar edges among voters under age 35.
According to the Democratic Indiana poll by Survey USA:
Clinton Has The Hoosiers Right Where She Wants Them, 24 Hours Till Votes Are Counted: 24 hours till votes are counted in the Indiana Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama in the symbolically important popular vote, and possibly by enough to pick up more than a trivial number of net Convention delegates, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-primary tracking poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. In 4 tracking polls over the past 5 weeks, Clinton has never polled lower than 52%, Obama has never polled higher than 43%. At the wire, they finish: Clinton 54%, Obama 42%. Among males, the two have been tied in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. Among females, Clinton has always led by at least 14, and finishes ahead by 22. Among Republicans and Independents, the two are effectively tied.Among Democrats, Clinton finishes ahead by 19.Clinton leads among Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals. She leads among Pro Life and Pro Choice voters, among regular and not-so-regular church goers. In Northern Indiana, she leads by 11. In Central and Southern Indiana, she leads by 27. In greater Indianapolis, Obama leads. Among voters under 35, Obama leads. Among voters over 35, Clinton leads.