McCain vs Obama

Results: Obama 49%, McCain 35%, Nader 5%, Ron Paul 4%.
Clinton 51%, McCain 37%, Nader 4%, Ron Paul 5%.
N=399, MoE = 5%. Conducted May 14, 2008.

Highlights:

Polling Methodology Statement: Registration based sampling was used to get the voters participating in this poll. Interactive Voice Response (IVR) was used to conduct the poll and obtain the results.

N
RAW DATA
GENDER
MEN
WOMEN
McCain 132 51 81
Obama 182 67 115
Nader 17 12 5
Paul 15 7 8
Undecided 26 9 17
S 27 9 18
TOTAL 399 155 244

 

%
RAW DATA
GENDER
MEN
WOMEN
McCain 33.1 32.9 33.2
Obama 45.6 43.2 47.1
Nader 4.3 7.7 2.0
Paul 3.8 4.5 3.3
Undecided 6.5 5.8 7.0
Stay Home 6.8 5.8 7.4
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0

Women comprised of 61.2% of the respondents to our poll so we weighted the results at 53/47 F/M, we get the following:

%
WEIGHTED BASED ON GENDER
McCain 33.1
Obama 45.3
Nader 4.7
Paul 3.9
Undecided 6.4
Stay Home 6.6

Voters who stay at home do not have an official vote cast on the ballot, so we’ve decided to renormalize the results by taking stay at home voters out of the mix.

%
WEIGHTED BASED ON GENDER – Normalized
McCain 35.4
Obama 48.5
Nader 5.1
Paul 4.1
Undecided 6.9

After rounding, Obama’s lead extends from 12% to 14% but matches the results of other pollsters.

Pollster Obama McCain
AVERAGE 50 40
USAElectionPolls.com 49 35
PPIC 49 40
Rasmussen Reports 50 43
Survey USA 50 43

McCain does slightly worse in our poll, as much as 8% compared to Rasmussen Reports and Survey USA, likely due to the inclusion of both Ralph Nader and Ron Paul as candidates. Second choices were not measured.

N
RAW DATA
ETHNICITY
WHITE
BLACK
LATINO
OTHER
McCain 132 115 3 7 7
Obama 182 118 34 20 10
Nader 17 12 2 3 0
Paul 15 12 1 1 1
Undecided 26 13 1 11 1
Stay Home 27 19 3 2 3
TOTAL 399 289 44 44 22

We slightly oversampled the African American vote but undersampled the Latino vote. With Obama in the race, it may be correct to assume that Blacks would make up closer to 10% of the vote than the 6% achieved in 2004. Due to the small sample sizes of these demographics, we did not weight the results based on ethnicity.

Here is the breakdown by race.

%
RAW DATA
ETHNICITY
WHITE
BLACK
LATINO
OTHER
McCain 33.1 39.8 6.8 15.9 31.8
Obama 45.6 40.8 77.3 45.5 45.5
Nader 4.3 4.2 4.5 6.8 0.0
Paul 3.8 4.2 2.3 2.3 4.5
Undecided 6.5 4.5 2.3 25.0 4.5
Stay Home 6.8 6.6 6.8 4.5 13.6

 

McCain vs Clinton

%
RAW DATA
GENDER
MEN
WOMEN
McCain 33.8 38.1 31.1
Clinton 48.9 38.1 55.7
Nader 3.5 4.5 2.9
Paul 4.8 6.5 3.7
Undecided 3.0 4.5 2.0
Stay Home 6.0 8.4 4.5
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0

 

%
WEIGHTED BASED ON GENDER – Normalized
McCain 36.7
Clinton 50.6
Nader 3.9
Paul 5.3
Undecided 3.4

Our results for the Clinton-McCain matchup in California also matched the results of other pollsters.

Pollster Clinton McCain
AVERAGE 49 41
USAElectionPolls.com 51 37
PPIC 46 43
Rasmussen Reports 47 42
Survey USA 53 40

 

%
RAW DATA
ETHNICITY
WHITE
BLACK
LATINO
OTHER
McCain 33.8 39.4 18.2 13.6 31.8
Clinton 48.9 46.0 47.7 72.7 40.9
Nader 3.5 3.5 9.1 0.0 0.0
Paul 4.8 4.8 6.8 2.3 4.5
Undecided 3.0 3.1 4.5 2.3 0.0
Stay Home 6.0 3.1 13.6 9.1 22.7

Clinton does not even pull 50% of the black vote here in California according to our poll. If Clinton wants to claim that she is the most electable by stating white working class voters are more willing to vote for her over Obama then she should also point to the black vote that may not vote for her come November.

Democrats tend to rely on the African American vote come November so it is to be seen whether Clinton can rely on their support or not.

Keep in mind that the sample size of African Americans in this poll is small so it is best not to jump to conclusions about the exact results of this demographic but rather the fact that her support is considerably lower than Obama’s.

Crosstabs and results from other questions in this poll will be released Tuesday May 20, 2008.